Tracking legislative races

Groups aligned with Democrats and Republicans are planning to pour a couple hundred million dollars into state legislative battles that will culminate with the November general election.

Nearly 5,800 legislative seats in 44 states are up for election this year, with top targets that include a half-dozen states where control of a chamber is in play — Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

In addition to AP’s historic role of counting the vote and declaring winners in the thousands of statewide races each election cycle, AP also provides sweeping statewide coverage of elections through its dedicated team of statehouse reporters based in all 50 states.

These races are also ripe for local reporting. Questions to consider include: What is at stake in your state’s legislative elections? Is partisan control or a supermajority up for grabs? How much money is flowing into your state’s legislative races?

Battles for control over legislatures reach homestretch

During each two-year election cycle, national Democratic and Republican groups pour money into states where they think that victories in particular legislative races could help them win control of a chamber or increase their share of seats in a meaningful way. Other groups aligned with Democrats and Republicans also target particular states with spending on legislative races.

The targeted states often overlap but can vary from group to group.

A list of the states targeted by the national Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee can be found here, and those targeted by the national Republican State Leadership Committee are described here.

After Republican successes over the previous decade, several Democratic-aligned groups also have emerged to provide funding for their own state legislative targets. One of the most prolific spenders is The States Project, which describes its targeted states here. Another is Forward Majority. which lists its targets here.

Additional reporting threads to consider

— What particular races do party leaders expect to be the most competitive? Talk to candidates and voters in targeted legislative districts to see what issues they are stressing.

— Even if control of your state’s legislature is not expected to change, elections still provide opportunities for parties to build up their majorities or cut into the opposing party’s share of seats. This can affect which policies gain momentum during legislative sessions. Talk to party leaders to identify districts that have the potential of swinging from one party to another and then talk to candidates and voters there to see what issues they’re discussing.

— How much money is going into your state’s legislative races? Though national groups may target certain states, a lot of money also flows through campaign committees associated with the Democratic and Republican caucuses of each state’s House, Assembly or Senate chamber. Candidates also receive contributions directly. Check campaign finance reports to see who’s funding these races. Are donors backing candidates in hopes of advancing particular issues?

— What patterns are emerging in your state through the primary elections, in advance of the November general election? Are there more open seats without incumbents than normal? If so why? Is this due to retirements, resignations, term limits or redrawn districts? Are more incumbents losing in primaries than usual? If so, explore the reasons why.